Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42390946›Full record

Trial reportJCI insight2026

A validated, modifiable proteomic score from the EXSCEL trial predicts cardiovascular events in diabetes.

Kristin M Corey, Maggie Nguyen, Michael Y Mi, Megan E Ramaker, Ilya Zhbannikov, Harald Sourij, G Michael Felker, Naveed Sattar, Jennifer B Green, Pamela S Douglas and 7 more

Abstract readRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in JCI insight, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

17 authors.

Kristin M CoreyDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Maggie NguyenDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Michael Y MiCardiovascular Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston Massachusetts, USA.
Megan E RamakerDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Ilya ZhbannikovDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Harald SourijCardiometabolic Trials Unit, Division of Endocrinology and Diabetology, Medical University of Graz, Graz, Austria.
G Michael FelkerDuke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Naveed SattarInstitute of Cardiovascular & Medical Sciences, University of Glasgow, Glasgow, United Kingdom.
Jennifer B GreenDuke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Pamela S DouglasDuke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Robert E GersztenCardiovascular Medicine, Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center, Boston Massachusetts, USA.
Robert J MentzDuke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Adrian F HernandezDuke Clinical Research Institute, Durham, North Carolina, USA.
Rury R HolmanDiabetes Trials Unit, Radcliffe Department of Medicine, University of Oxford, Oxford, United Kingdom.
Bruce M PsatyCardiovascular Health Research Unit, Department of Medicine, and.
James S FloydCardiovascular Health Research Unit, Department of Medicine, and.
Svati H ShahDuke Molecular Physiology Institute, Duke University School of Medicine, Durham, North Carolina, USA.

Funding

Exceptional Survival: Trajectories to Functional Aging (CHS All Stars)R01AG023629 · NIA · UNIVERSITY OF PITTSBURGH AT PITTSBURGH · PI NEWMAN, ANNE B. · 2004 to 2016
$9.5M
CHS research resources for the cardiovascular health of older adultsU01HL130114 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI BURKE, GREGORY L, KRONMAL, RICHARD A · 2016 to 2019
$6.6M
Plasma proteomics in CHS and population biologyR01HL144483 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI DURDA, JON PETER, GERSZTEN, ROBERT E · 2019 to 2022
$6.0M
CHS Events Follow-up StudyU01HL080295 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI PSATY, BRUCE M · 2005 to 2008
$4.6M
Infrastructure for mentored access to CHS data and specimensR01HL172803 · NHLBI · UNIVERSITY OF WASHINGTON · PI James S Floyd, Michelle Christina Odden · 2025 to 2026
$2.7M
Mixed meal tolerance test elicited metabolite responses as novel markers of cardiometabolic riskK23HL171855 · NHLBI · BETH ISRAEL DEACONESS MEDICAL CENTER · PI Michael Mi · 2024 to 2026
$572k
NHLBI NIH HHS K23 HL171855NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL144483NHLBI NIH HHS R01 HL172803NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL080295NHLBI NIH HHS U01 HL130114NIA NIH HHS R01 AG023629
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

BACKGROUNDAdults with type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) are at increased risk for stroke, myocardial infarction, and cardiovascular death, yet individual risk is heterogeneous and incompletely captured by clinical models.METHODSIn the Exenatide Study of Cardiovascular Event Lowering (EXSCEL), adults with T2DM were randomized to a GLP-1 RA (exenatide) or a placebo and followed longitudinally for major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE). High-throughput discovery proteomics was done in plasma collected at baseline and 12 months. Proteins associated with time to MACE were identified using multivariable regression and incorporated into supervised machine learning models. A multi-protein score was developed and externally validated in 2 independent population-based and trial cohorts.RESULTSThe proteomic score showed incremental improvement in cardiovascular risk discrimination beyond clinical factors alone, and several proteins were consistently prioritized across modeling approaches. The protein score and a top-ranked protein, tetranectin, were modified by GLP-1 RA treatment, and a decrease in protein score was associated with improved outcomes, supporting modifiability of MACE risk.CONCLUSIONExternal validation confirmed generalizability across cohorts with and without diabetes. Together, these findings demonstrate that plasma proteomic signatures can enhance cardiovascular risk stratification and identify treatment-responsive biomarkers in T2DM, supporting their potential role in precision prevention strategiesFUNDINGThe EXSCEL study was funded by Amylin Pharmaceuticals. This research was supported by contracts HHSN268201200036C, HHSN268200800007C, HHSN268201800001C, N01HC55222, N01HC85079, N01HC85080, N01HC85081, N01HC85082, N01HC85083, N01HC85086, 75N92021D00006, and grants R01HL146145, U01HL080295, U01HL130114, R01HL172803, and R01HL144483 from the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute, with additional contribution from the National Institute of Neurological Disorders and Stroke. Additional support was provided by R01AG023629 from the National Institute on Aging.

Indexed as

Cardiovascular DiseasesDiabetes Mellitus, Type 2ExenatideHypoglycemic AgentsProteomicsAgedBiomarkersFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedBiomarkersExenatideHypoglycemic AgentsAtherosclerosisBiomarkersCardiologyEndocrinologyMolecular epidemiology

Identifiers

PMID42390946
PMCPMC13502179

What OpenQuestion holds

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.