[Disease, social, and economic burden of smoking in Brazil and the impact of tax increases on the economy and on the reduction of morbidity and mortality].

This study aimed to estimate the disease, social, and economic burden of smoking in Brazil in 2022 and to predict the benefits of tax increases, including its effects of the illegal market. A probabilistic Markov microsimulation model was applied in which individuals aged 35 years or older were followed in hypothetical cohorts and quantified deaths, health events, the direct cost of medical care, and the indirect cost due to productivity losses. A model to estimate health and economic gains from 10-year tax increase scenarios was developed. Data on smoking prevalence, the Brazilian demographic structure, mortality, and morbidity were obtained from official databases and the literature. The used health resources were obtained from the literature and consultations with specialists. Smoking caused 174,000 deaths and 5.7 million years of life lost due to premature death and disability. Its economic burden totaled BRL 153 billion, of which BRL 67 billion was attributed to direct costs and BRL 45 billion to indirect costs. The cost of informal caregivers equaled BRL 41 billion. In the scenario with the illegal market for tobacco products, a 50% increase in the price of cigarettes may generate economic benefits of BRL 161 billion in 10 years. The current tax reform currently in Brazil may constitute a permanent pricing and tax policy.