ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026
When hosts gather: how extreme seasonal aggregation affects epidemiological outcomes.
Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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5 authors.
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Abstract
Wildlife aggregate for many reasons (e.g. reproduction, feeding) and at times these aggregations can be extreme, with host densities increasing several orders of magnitude. While the impact of seasonality on infectious disease dynamics is well studied, few-if any-studies have explicitly examined how extreme aggregation affects key epidemiological outcomes. Here we consider an epidemic in a closed SIR (Susceptible-Infectious-Recovered) metapopulation with a hub-satellite structure, where seasonal movement into the hub follows a modified Gaussian function. We numerically explore how aggregation duration and timing shape two outcomes: final size and peak prevalence. We find a narrow set of circumstances and pathogens for which even extreme aggregation materially alters these outcomes. When aggregation coincides with, or begins just prior to, infection introduction, aggregation can strongly affect pathogens with
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