ArticleInfectious diseases of poverty2026
Spatiotemporal trends in tuberculosis incidence in Thailand, 2012-2023: a nationwide, province-level analysis.
Article in Infectious diseases of poverty, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
5 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
backgroundTuberculosis (TB) remains a major public health challenge in Thailand, a high-burden country undergoing both epidemiological transition and pandemic-related disruption. This study examined temporal and spatial patterns of age-standardized TB incidence from 2012 to 2023 across Thailand's 13 health regions and 77 provinces.
methodsThis nationwide ecological study used annual TB case notifications (2012-2023) for all 77 Thai provinces from Thailand's National Disease Surveillance System (Report 506), Bureau of Epidemiology, with mid-year and age-stratified provincial populations. Age-standardized incidence rates (ASR) were calculated using the WHO World Standard Population (2000-2025). Temporal trends were assessed by Joinpoint regression with Bayesian-Information-Criterion model selection (maximum 2 joinpoints) and validated by generalized additive models. Spatial clustering was evaluated by Global Moran's I and Local Indicators of Spatial Association (LISA) under queen contiguity, with sensitivity analyses across alternative weights and Benjamini-Hochberg false-discovery-rate correction. Provinces were classified into long-term trend categories combining effect size (AAPC) and significance, and COVID-19 impact was quantified by 2019-2023 ASR percent change.
resultsNational TB incidence declined substantially from 2012 to 2023, although marked regional heterogeneity persisted. Five health regions showed the strongest long-term reductions: region 3 [AAPC: - 20.51, 95% confidence interval (CI): - 33.00 to - 13.77], region 9 (- 19.42, 95% CI: - 28.98 to - 8.57), region 4 (- 17.53, 95% CI: - 23.64 to - 12.89), region 11 (- 11.79, 95% CI: - 22.16 to - 0.04), and region 13 (- 11.19, 95% CI: - 22.44 to - 3.74). Region 6 showed an early decline followed by stabilisation, and region 12 showed a mid-period increase before a post-2019 reduction.
conclusionsThailand has achieved substantial overall reductions in TB incidence over the past decade, but pronounced regional and provincial disparities persist. Localized hot-spots, biphasic regional trajectories that may reflect surveillance and programmatic transitions, and compound vulnerability during the COVID-19 period underscore the need for geographically targeted monitoring, equitable resource allocation, and pro-poor interventions to sustain progress toward TB elimination.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.