Future planning for athletes: a social cognitive career theory explanation of student-athletes' self-efficacy and reflection.

Introduction: Student-athletes often develop within dual-career contexts in which academic and athletic demands coexist under sustained pressure. Although Social Cognitive Career Theory has been widely used to explain educational and career development, less is known about how identity-based self-systems are translated into extended future-oriented planning under chronic role overload. The study examined whether general self-efficacy mediates the relationship between student identity and planning horizon, and whether reflected appraisal strengthens this pathway among student-athletes. Methods: A cross-sectional survey design was adopted. Data were collected from 397 intercollegiate student-athletes in Taiwan. Measures included student identity, general self-efficacy, planning horizon, and reflected appraisal. Gender, age, and years of sport-specific training were treated as control variables. Descriptive statistics and Pearson's correlations were first conducted, and the mediation and moderated mediation analyses were then tested. Results: Student identity was positively associated with general self-efficacy and planning horizon. General self-efficacy was also positively associated with planning horizon. Mediation analysis showed that general self-efficacy mediated the relationship between student identity and planning horizon. In addition, reflected appraisal significantly moderated the relationship between student identity and general self-efficacy, such that the positive association became stronger as reflected appraisal increased. The moderated mediation analysis further indicated that the indirect effect of student identity on planning horizon through general self-efficacy was conditional on reflected appraisal and became stronger at higher levels of reflected appraisal. Conclusion: The findings support a Social Cognitive Career Theory-based explanation of student-athletes' future-oriented planning by showing that student identity contributes to planning horizon both directly and indirectly through general self-efficacy, while reflected appraisal functions as an important facilitating condition. The study clarifies how identity-based self-systems are translated into temporally extended goals under dual-career pressure. Practically, the results suggest that support programmes for student-athletes should not only strengthen academic role identification but also cultivate reflected appraisal and efficacy-related coping beliefs to promote more sustainable long-term planning.