Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42367880›Full record

ArticlebioRxiv : the preprint server for biology2026

SARS-CoV-2 saltational events are recurrent and trace to persistent human infections.

Cécile Tran-Kiem, Kathryn Kistler, Ryan Hisner, Trevor Bedford

Abstract readPreprint
In one paragraph

Article in bioRxiv : the preprint server for biology, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Cécile Tran-KiemVaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0003-0563-8428
Kathryn KistlerVaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.ORCID 0000-0002-3216-0020
Ryan HisnerDivision of Computational Biology, Department of Integrative Biomedical Sciences, Institute of Infectious Diseases and Molecular Medicine, University of Cape Town, Cape Town, South Africa.
Trevor BedfordVaccine and Infectious Diseases Division, Fred Hutchinson Cancer Center, Seattle, WA, USA.

Funding

Real-time tracking of virus evolution for vaccine strain selection and epidemiological investigationR35GM119774 · NIGMS · FRED HUTCHINSON CANCER RESEARCH CENTER · PI BEDFORD, TREVOR BC · 2016 to 2025
$4.1M
NIGMS NIH HHS R35 GM119774
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

SARS-CoV-2 evolution is characterized by gradual mutation accumulation but has been punctuated by rare yet impactful highly mutated variants. Whether such saltational jumps are a broad feature of SARS-CoV-2 evolution or rare anomalies remains unclear. We systematically investigate SARS-CoV-2 saltational evolution by developing a scalable framework to detect saltational events from 4.4 million high-quality viral genomes. Saltational events occurred at low but detectable rates during the pandemic and post-pandemic periods and across geographies. Their mutational signature closely matches that seen in persistent human infections but is inconsistent with the signatures of mink or deer infections. This points to persistent infection, rather than reverse zoonosis, as their primary source. While most saltational events lack evidence of onward transmission, those that do tend to carry mutations found in successful clades. Our work demonstrates that the emergence of highly mutated SARS-CoV-2 variants reflects a recurrent evolutionary process, with implications for preparedness.

Identifiers

PMID42367880
PMCPMC13308256

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.