Digital connectivity and social wellbeing in a polycrisis setting: longitudinal, nationwide, population-weighted evidence from Myanmar, 2021 to 2024.

Background: Digital technologies increasingly mediate social life, yet their relationship with social wellbeing in polycrisis settings where armed conflict, economic collapse, and surveillance coexist remains poorly understood. Nationwide evidence on multiple dimensions of digital connectivity and social wellbeing in active conflict settings remains scarce. Myanmar offers a critical case: rapid pre-2021 digital expansion has given way to recurrent shutdowns and worsening affordability amid conflict since 2021. We aimed to assess associations between multiple dimensions of digital connectivity and social wellbeing in Myanmar's polycrisis context, and describe national levels and inequalities in each. Methods: We used data from the Myanmar Household Welfare Survey (MHWS), a nationwide, population-weighted panel survey across eight rounds (December 2021 to December 2024) covering 310 of 330 townships. Across 34,783 unique respondents, 100,003 survey responses were completed. Longitudinal analyses drew on the full panel; cross-sectional analyses focused on 16,454 respondents in the final two rounds with social wellbeing data. Regression models assessed associations between four digital connectivity indicators and four social wellbeing outcomes, adjusting for demographic, socioeconomic, and geographic confounders. Findings: Digital disconnectivity was pervasive: over half lacked regular internet access (54.9% [8033/16,454], SE 0.6), computer ownership was rare (10.5% [2228/16,454], SE 0.3), and most households had fewer than one device per adult. Internet access ranged fivefold from 13.6% [117/502] (95% CI: 9.4-19.2%) in Rakhine to 70.1% [1770/2405] (95% CI: 67.3-72.8%) in Yangon. Intermittent internet use was associated with greater loneliness (AOR = 1.35, 95% CI: 1.15-1.58) and friend conflict (AOR = 1.92, 95% CI: 1.36-2.73); higher device density was independently associated with greater loneliness. Consistent internet access was protective against inability to contact friends. No digital indicator was significantly associated with social trust. Interpretation: Profound inequalities in digital connectivity persist across Myanmar's polycrisis, leaving conflict-affected populations most excluded. Where connectivity exists, its relationship with social wellbeing is nuanced: consistent internet access supports relational reach, but intermittent access may amplify loneliness and interpersonal conflict. Digital connectivity was not associated with social trust in this analysis; understanding what shapes trust will require measures of governance and community conditions beyond the scope of these data. Policies should prioritize service reliability; ongoing monitoring, broader crisis survey wellbeing measurement, and qualitative work are needed. Funding: This analysis received no specific funding; the implementation of MHWS survey was funded by the Livelihoods and Food Security Fund (LIFT).