Predictive Approach to Mapping Angiostrongylus cantonensis Nematode Distribution, Canary Islands, Spain.

The invasive nematode Angiostrongylus cantonensis (rat lungworm) can cause eosinophilic meningitis in humans. Once restricted to Southeast Asia, A. cantonensis nematodes are now widespread across the tropics and have been reported in Europe. Tenerife, in the Canary Islands, and the Mediterranean region are emerging hotspots. We surveyed gastropods, rats, and lizards across Tenerife and detected the parasite in all host groups at 2.4%-41.6% prevalence. Using species distribution models, we identified precipitation seasonality as the main driver of habitat suitability; tree cover and climatic variability primarily shaped prevalence patterns. Modeling showed suitable habitats in northeastern Tenerife and several western Canary Islands but limited overlap with areas of dense human population. Multivariate environmental similarity surface analysis comparison with another A. cantonensis hotspot, Hawaii, USA, revealed similar environments across the archipelago, except for the novel northeastern Tenerife area. Although no human infections have been reported, continued vigilance is warranted because A. cantonensis nematodes are established in Tenerife.