ArticleBMC infectious diseases2026
Modeling the impact of war, interventions, and funding on malaria transmission dynamics in Sudan.
Article in BMC infectious diseases, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Malaria poses a significant public health risk worldwide, and the infection results from the bite of an infected female Anopheles mosquito. Many malaria-endemic regions face instability, often driven by wars, heightening the risk of infectious disease transmission. Malaria funding and targeted prevention are essential for reducing and eventually eradicating transmission. This article focuses on developing a compartmental mathematical model to study malaria infection dynamics, incorporating the effects of malaria prevention, funding, and war on health systems. We evaluate the model's basic reproduction number [Formula: see text] and identify equilibrium points. Our model analysis provides a forward bifurcation, indicating that malaria can be controlled if [Formula: see text], and we show cases of backward bifurcation when the threshold [Formula: see text]. We fit our model to the collected data and perform a sensitivity analysis of [Formula: see text] and numerical simulations. Our results demonstrate that increased funding and effective prevention reduce malaria transmission, whereas war leads to higher transmission rates. We also offer strategies to minimize malaria spread during armed conflict.
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