ArticleBritish journal of cancer2026
Long-term effectiveness and overdiagnosis in the NHS breast screening programme: a cohort study with up to 33 years of follow-up.
Article in British journal of cancer, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
7 authors.
Funding
Abstract
backgroundPopulation-based mammographic screening programmes have been operating for over 30 years and whilst many studies have assessed the short- to medium-term effectiveness of screening, few have assessed their long-term effectiveness. The aim of this study was to assess the long-term effectiveness of the NHS Breast Screening Programme in England and Wales.
methods2,509,384 women aged 49-64 years and uninvited to screening upon study entry were studied, with screening status changing on invitation and attendance. Women were followed for breast cancer diagnosis and death for a maximum of 33 years. Poisson regression was used to assess the effect of screening on breast cancer incidence and mortality compared to an uninvited comparison group, and overdiagnosis.
resultsAfter adjustment for confounders, invitation to screening was associated with a 28% reduction in breast cancer mortality (RR: 0.72; 95% CI: 0.71-0.74) and attendance at screening was associated with a 33% reduction (RR: 0.67; 95% CI: 0.65-0.69). There was a 4% excess of breast cancer diagnoses associated with being screened (RR: 1.04; 95% CI: 1.02-1.07) with at least 5 years follow-up post-screening.
conclusionThese findings indicate that screening continues to be effective in reducing breast cancer mortality many years after cessation of screening and that the level of overdiagnosis associated with long-term follow-up is low.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.