ArticleDigestive diseases and sciences2026
Disease Burden of Early-Onset Pancreatic Cancer in Adults Aged 20-54 Years in Low- and Middle-Income Countries: A GBD 2023 Analysis.
Article in Digestive diseases and sciences, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPancreatic cancer incidence rises in low- and middle-income countries (LMICs), yet data on early-onset disease (20-54 years) are scarce.
methodsUsing Global Burden of Disease Study 2023 data (1990-2023), we analyzed incidence, mortality, and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) for early-onset pancreatic cancer in LMIC adults. Trends were assessed via estimated annual percentage change (EAPC), stratified by World Bank income groups. Decomposition analysis quantified epidemiological/demographic drivers. Socioeconomic inequalities were evaluated using socio-demographic index (SDI); projections to 2050 employed autoregressive integrated moving average models.
resultsFrom 1990 to 2023, LMIC early-onset pancreatic cancer cases and deaths increased by 125% and 128%, respectively. Age-standardized incidence (ASIR EAPC: 0.68%) and mortality rates rose. Lower-middle-income countries showed the steepest incidence surge (+ 282%; ASIR EAPC: 1.65%). Young women (20-34 years) in low/lower-middle-income countries bore higher burden, contrasting higher-income regions. Burden correlated positively with national income and exhibited an S-shaped SDI association. Epidemiological changes drove increases in lower-income settings. Socioeconomic inequalities widened; age-standardized rates are projected to rise through 2050.
conclusionEarly-onset pancreatic cancer burden is escalating across LMICs, with distinct patterns by income level. Young women in lower-income settings are specifically vulnerable. Targeted prevention and resource allocation are urgently needed.
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