The achievement-dropout paradox: structural and performance predictors of youth-to-senior transition attrition in elite handball.

Background: Dropout during the youth-to-senior transition represents a critical challenge in competitive team sports, yet it is often examined primarily at the individual level. While burnout frameworks provide an important theoretical lens for understanding how accumulated developmental stress may contribute to career discontinuation, dropout is a multi-determined outcome that also reflects structural, organisational, and opportunity-related constraints. Limited evidence exists on how structural reforms, organisational continuity, and competitive performance environments jointly shape transition outcomes in elite youth handball. Methods: This study analysed longitudinal registry data from 1,898 male handball players who completed U20 eligibility in Hungary between 2013 and 2023. Dropout was defined as termination of competitive handball following the U20 stage. Multivariable logistic regression and survival analyses were used to examine the association between dropout and birth cohort, exposure to a major competition reform, homegrown status, late-adolescent club mobility, and team competitive strength during the final U20 season. Results: Overall, 31.8% of players dropped out immediately after U20 completion, with dropout concentrated between ages 18 and 21. Exposure to the post-2017-18 competition structure was associated with significantly higher dropout risk (OR = 2.47, 95% CI 1.89-3.23). Homegrown players showed substantially lower dropout odds compared with non-homegrown players (OR = 0.18, 95% CI 0.13-0.25), while late-adolescent club mobility increased dropout risk (OR = 1.34, 95% CI 1.11-1.62). Team performance context exhibited a non-linear association with dropout: players from both low-performance (OR = 1.56, 95% CI 1.18-2.07) and high-performance U20 teams (OR = 1.41, 95% CI 1.05-1.89) showed elevated dropout risk relative to those from moderately performing teams. Conclusions: Dropout during the youth-to-senior transition in handball is a systemic phenomenon shaped by the interaction of structural exposure, organisational continuity, and competitive performance ecology. Because psychological burnout was not directly measured, findings are interpreted as associations rather than causal pathways. Balanced developmental environments and sustained homegrown pathways appear associated with stronger long-term retention. These findings highlight the need for talent development systems to align youth competition structures with sustainable senior integration capacity.