ArticleViruses2026
Risk and Spatial Spread of a Measles Outbreak in Texas.
Article in Viruses, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- The 2025 measles outbreak in Texas.BMC infectious diseases · 2026Article
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
Abstract
In January 2025, a measles outbreak was reported in Gaines County, Texas, and subsequently spread to other counties and states. However, investigations into the geographic spread of this outbreak remain limited. We developed a measles transmission model parameterized with 2020-2024 measles-mumps-rubella (MMR) vaccination coverage and human mobility data in Texas. We conducted sensitivity analyses to evaluate how variation in model parameters affects outcomes. We compared model predictions to data from the 2025 measles outbreak and simulated scenarios for outbreak originating in different low vaccination counties. We found that an outbreak originating in Gaines County would have at least 80% probability of directly generating local outbreaks in eight neighboring counties in West Texas. The spatial spread was highly sensitive to the basic reproduction number (R0) and population-level MMR vaccination coverage. Outbreaks originating in counties with low MMR vaccination rates, such as Polk, Montague, or Limestone County, are likely to spread to large metropolitan areas such as Houston and Dallas. Measles has the potential to cause statewide outbreaks in Texas. Our modeling framework can inform county-level risk assessment and guide preemptive vaccination strategies.
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Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.