ArticleBMJ open respiratory research2026
GOLD 2026 COPD ABE assessment tool to identify individuals at high risk in a UK multicentre COPD cohort (ERICA).
Article in BMJ open respiratory research, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Identifying people with chronic obstructive pulmonary disease (COPD) who are at high risk of significant health events such as exacerbations and hospital admissions is clinically important to guide optimisation of preventative interventions. We evaluated the utility of the Global Initiative for Obstructive Lung Disease (GOLD) 2026 ABE assessment tool which stratifies based on exacerbations or symptoms to distinguish these patients at high risk.
methods664 participants from the ERICA (
resultsUsing CAAT, n=43/182/439 (7%/27%/66%) of participants were in groups A, B and E, respectively. By mMRC, n=144/81/439 (22%/12%/66%) were in groups A, B and E. The ABE tool derived using both CAAT and mMRC predicted H-AECOPD over follow-up. For group B versus group A by CAAT, the OR was 3.72 (95% CI 1.09 to 12.73, p=0.04), and for group E versus group A the OR was 8.13 (95% CI 2.45 to 26.92, p<0.001). By mMRC, for group B versus group A the OR was 2.69 (95% CI 1.36 to 5.32, p=0.005) and for group E versus group A the OR was 4.05 (95% CI 2.38 to 6.05, p<0.001).
conclusionsIn this prospective real-world UK cohort, the simple GOLD 2026 ABE tool identified patients with high-risk COPD for severe exacerbations (H-AECOPD). The differences in groups A and B classification depending on whether the CAAT score or mMRC scale is used have clinical implications that need consideration.
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