ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026
Large cities lose their growth advantage as countries urbanize.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Large cities lose their growth advantage as countries urbanize.Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America · 2026Article
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4 authors.
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Abstract
The share of the world population living in cities with more than one million people rose from 11% in 1975 to 24% in 2025 (our estimates). Will this trend toward greater concentration in large cities continue or level off? We introduce two new city population datasets that use consistent city definitions across countries and over time. The first covers the world between 1975 and 2025, using satellite imagery. The second covers the United States between 1850 and 2020, using census microdata. We find that urban growth follows a characteristic life cycle. In the early stages of a country's urbanization process, large cities grow faster than smaller ones. At later stages, growth rates equalize across sizes. We use this life cycle to project future population concentration in large cities. Our projections suggest that 38% of the world population will be living in cities with more than one million people by 2100. This estimate is higher than the 33% implied by the well-known theory of proportional growth, but lower than the 42% obtained by extrapolating current trends.
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