ArticleEpidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland)2026
Is Excess Mortality Returning to Pre-Pandemic Levels? A Multi-Model Stochastic Approach for COVID-19: The Spanish Case.
Article in Epidemiologia (Basel, Switzerland), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionThis study quantifies excess mortality in Spain during and after the COVID-19 pandemic and assesses whether mortality levels are returning to pre-pandemic patterns.
methodsExpected mortality was estimated using stochastic forecasting models calibrated on pre-pandemic data (1990-2019) and compared with observed mortality over the period 2020-2023. The analysis relies on a multi-model framework including the Lee-Carter, Cairns-Blake-Dowd, and age-period-cohort models.
resultsThe results show a substantial excess mortality during the pandemic years, with the proportion of ages exhibiting punctual excess mortality increasing from around 65% before the pandemic to approximately 85% during 2020-2022. Excess mortality declined sharply in 2023, when indicators returned to levels comparable to those observed prior to COVID-19, suggesting a transition toward near-normal mortality. The Lee-Carter model showed superior short-term performance in detecting abrupt mortality deviations, while APC and CBD models captured longer-term structural patterns.
conclusionsThese findings highlight the usefulness of multi-model stochastic approaches for monitoring excess mortality and assessing recovery trajectories following major epidemiological shocks.
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