ArticleInfectious disease reports2026
Climate Variability Drives Dengue Transmission in Bangladesh.
Article in Infectious disease reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundDengue fever has emerged as a major public health concern in Bangladesh, with increasing incidence and geographic spread of outbreaks in recent years. This study aimed to investigate the lagged and non-linear associations between climatic factors and dengue incidence across all eight administrative divisions of Bangladesh from 2014 to 2025. MATERIALS AND
methodsAn ecological time-series design was employed using monthly dengue case data (
resultsDescriptive analysis showed substantial spatial heterogeneity, with the highest incidence observed in Dhaka (6.53 per 100,000) and the lowest in Sylhet (0.21 per 100,000). Choropleth maps illustrated distinct spatial distribution and regional variation in dengue burden across the country. Cross-correlation analysis identified significant lagged associations for temperature and rainfall (lag 1-3 months), humidity (lag 1-2 months), and wind speed (lag 2-3 months). The final GAM explained 88.6% of the deviance in dengue incidence (AIC = 7404.15; dispersion = 0.767). The approximate significance of smooth terms revealed that temperature at a lag of 1 month (
conclusionsOverall, dengue transmission in Bangladesh is driven by complex, lagged, and non-linear interactions between climatic variables, seasonality, and regional factors. These findings provide critical evidence for climate-based early warning systems, enhance outbreak prediction, and inform evidence-based vector control strategies.
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