ArticleBMC geriatrics2026
A short-term postoperative prediction model for colorectal cancer using comprehensive geriatric assessment.
Article in BMC geriatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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6 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundOlder colorectal cancer (CRC) patients face significant postoperative risks. This study aimed to develop a prediction model to quantify the short-term prognosis of these patients following laparoscopic surgery.
methodsThis prospective study enrolled patients aged ≥ 60 years undergoing elective laparoscopic radical resection (May 2021-April 2024). The primary outcome was 90-day Major Adverse Postoperative Events (MAPE). A comprehensive geriatric assessment (CGA) was performed to identify independent risk factors.
resultsMAPE occurred in 23.7% of the derivation cohort and 22.5% of the validation cohort. Multivariable logistic regression identified six independent preoperative predictors: weight loss (OR = 2.20, 95% CI 1.20-4.22), ADL scores (OR = 1.11, 95% CI 1.03-1.20), preoperative BUN (OR = 1.14, 95% CI 1.01-1.29), ASMI (OR = 0.68, 95% CI 0.47-0.98), hypoalbuminemia (OR = 1.33, 95% CI 1.02-1.89), and TNM stage (OR = 1.75, 95% CI 1.18-2.60). The prediction model demonstrated robust discrimination (AUC: derivation 0.802; validation 0.779) and excellent calibration. Decision curve analysis confirmed its clinical utility across a wide range of threshold probabilities.
conclusionsThis CGA-based tool effectively predicts short-term prognosis, enabling personalized risk stratification and identifying high-risk candidates to guide future perioperative management strategies.
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