Notational analysis of men's curling at the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics: comparing China with medal-winning teams.

This study investigates the technical and tactical performance of the Chinese men's curling team in comparison with medal-winning teams during the 2022 Beijing Winter Olympics, based on notational analysis of 34 matches. Guided by three research questions, the frequency and types of delivery and takeout techniques were first analysed, revealing that the Chinese team relied heavily on offensive shots such as draw and hit-and-rolls. In contrast, medal-winning teams adopted more balanced strategies, showing greater variability across both offensive and defensive shot types. Second, inter-team comparisons using Spearman correlation and chi-square tests showed that medalists demonstrated significantly higher tactical diversity and superior success rates in key shot types. Third, binary logistic regression was employed to evaluate the predictive value of specific tactical indicators. Promotion takeout success was found to be a significant positive predictor of match outcome (B = 1.150, p = 0.005), with a model classification accuracy of 85.7% and an AUC of 0.91. Conversely, sweeping success was negatively associated with winning (B = -0.200, p = 0.004), and its corresponding model achieved 76.2% accuracy and an AUC of 0.88. These findings suggest that sweeping may function as a compensatory tactic in high-pressure contexts. By combining descriptive, comparative, and predictive approaches, this study establishes a comprehensive framework for assessing elite curling performance and offers practical insights for coaching and strategic decision-making.