ArticleProceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America2026
Modeling framework to demonstrate elimination of a vector population: Tsetse elimination in Chad.
Article in Proceedings of the National Academy of Sciences of the United States of America, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Every year, over 700,000 people, particularly children under five, die from vector-borne diseases worldwide. Effectively controlling endemics and preventing new outbreaks requires an integrated approach that can lead to the elimination of both vectors and diseases. In the last two decades, integrating medical interventions and vector control has significantly reduced the incidence of Gambian Human African Trypanosomiasis (g-HAT), with the World Health Organization validating eight countries as having eliminated the disease as a public health problem. However, elimination of the tsetse vector has not been confirmed, leaving the possibility of re-emergence. We developed a six-step modeling framework to assess vector elimination by calculating: i) the probability of vector capture; ii) the probability of observing a series of zero catches, even without actual elimination; iii) the probability of natural elimination; iv) the probability of failing to detect a rebound; v) the reinvasion risk; and vi) the sensitivity analysis. Our case study is g-HAT in Mandoul, Chad, and the elimination of
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