ArticleBMJ global health2026
Health and economic burdens of emerging infectious diseases in the USA, US territories and globally.
Article in BMJ global health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
introductionEmerging infectious diseases (EIDs) cause significant health and economic burdens in the USA and globally. Existing methods and analyses fall short of what is required to prioritise diseases for health technology research and development (R&D), including for medical countermeasure (MCM) development within rapid response frameworks by the Center for Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority, part of the Administration for Strategic Preparedness and Response within the U.S. Department of Health and Human Services.
methodsWe developed a method for quantifying and ranking health and economic disease burdens ('full burdens') and applied it to 15 high-priority EIDs for 223 countries and territories, including the USA and US territories, historically from 2000 to 2022 and prospectively from 2025 to 2034. Health burdens consisted of disability-adjusted life-year losses, converted into monetary values using the value of a statistical life-year. Economic burdens consisted of direct and indirect costs during the acute stage of illness for hospitalised cases. We computed unweighted and weighted burden measures, the latter controlling for global disparities in ability-to-pay to avoid EID burdens. We projected future disease burdens using Monte Carlo simulation.
resultsPandemics caused the largest historical and projected unweighted and weighted full burdens in the USA and globally. Among non-pandemics, across unweighted and weighted burdens, dengue and cholera imposed the largest historical and projected full burdens globally; West Nile Virus imposed the largest historical and projected full burdens in the USA, and dengue imposed the largest historical full burdens in the US territories. Weighted full burdens exceeded five times the unweighted ones. Regionally, the Americas and Africa faced the largest per capita weighted burdens while the Western Pacific region faced the smallest.
conclusionR&D priority-setting, including MCM development, depends on multiple criteria, including disease burdens. Our full burden quantification methods and results, along with other such criteria, can inform optimal priority-setting.
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