ArticleFrontiers in pediatrics2026
Development and validation of a predictive model for chronic or persistent immune thrombocytopenia in children incorporating anti-glycoprotein IIb antibody: a retrospective cohort study utilizing LASSO regression and bootstrap stability analysis.
Article in Frontiers in pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Background: Pediatric immune thrombocytopenia (ITP) is an autoimmune condition involving platelet destruction. While most cases resolve spontaneously, 20%-30% progress to chronic disease (cITP), necessitating early risk prediction. Current prognostic models for childhood ITP lack platelet-specific immunological markers. This study aimed to develop and validate a predictive model for chronic/persistent ITP(c/pITP) integrating clinical factors and anti-platelet glycoprotein antibodies. Methods: We retrospectively analyzed 381 children with newly diagnosed ITP (2022-2024). Patients were randomly allocated into training ( Results: Fourteen highly stable predictors were identified; the top three were platelet count (PLT, 100%), recent infection or vaccination history (IOV, 100%), and anti-GPIIb antibody status (99.9%). The final 4-variable model (age, IOV, PLT, anti-GPIIb) demonstrated good discrimination in the test set (AUC = 0.743; 95% CI: 0.650-0.836), with no evidence of overfitting (training AUC = 0.732). Calibration was satisfactory (Hosmer-Lemeshow Conclusion: This concise model incorporating anti-GPIIb antibody enables early risk stratification, primarily to identify children unlikely to develop c/pITP.
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