Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42325474›Full record

ArticleInfectious Disease Modelling2026

Rapid assessment of local disease control measures against the Marburg virus outbreak in Ethiopia in late 2025.

Qingcui Wu, Zihao Guo, Zihan Yuan, Sheikh Taslim Ali, Kai Wang, Sukhyun Ryu, Lirong Cao, Shengzhi Sun, Marc K C Chong, Salihu S Musa and 5 more

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Article in Infectious Disease Modelling, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

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Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

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0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Qingcui WuSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Zihao GuoJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Zihan YuanSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Sheikh Taslim AliSchool of Public Health, University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Kai WangDepartment of Medical Engineering and Technology, Xinjiang Medical University, Urumqi, China.
Sukhyun RyuDepartment of Preventive Medicine, College of Medicine, The Catholic University of Korea, Seoul, Republic of Korea.
Lirong CaoJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Shengzhi SunSchool of Public Health, Capital Medical University, Beijing, China.
Marc K C ChongJC School of Public Health and Primary Care, Chinese University of Hong Kong, Hong Kong, China.
Salihu S MusaDepartment of Mathematics, Institute for Health Computing, University of Maryland, North Bethesda, MD, USA.
Daihai HeDepartment of Applied Mathematics, Hong Kong Polytechnic University, Hong Kong, China.
Shi ZhaoSchool of Public Health, Tianjin Medical University, Tianjin, China.
Zijian FengSchool of Public Health and Emergency Management, Southern University of Science and Technology, Shenzhen, China.
Abdulrazaq G HabibDepartment of Medicine, Bayero University, Kano, Nigeria.
Yuantao HaoPeking University Center for Public Health and Epidemic Preparedness and Response, Peking University, Beijing, China.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

In November 2025, Marburg virus caused the first outbreak of Marburg virus disease (MVD) in Ethiopia. By December 15, a total of 14 laboratory-confirmed cases were reported, including 9 deaths, corresponding to a case fatality ratio of 64.3% among confirmed cases. In the absence of licenced vaccines or antivirals, non-pharmaceutical interventions (NPIs) were implemented to control transmission. We developed a stochastic epidemic model incorporating a stochastic exponential growth process with reporting adjustment to assess the effectiveness of NPIs. The reporting ratio was modelled using a beta distribution, and transmission parameters were estimated via Markov chain Monte Carlo with particle filtering for likelihood calculation. Using pre-NPI data (November 12-23), we estimated an exponential growth rate of 0.012 (95% credible interval [CrI]: 0.008, 0.014) per day, corresponding to an initial reproduction number of 1.13 (95% CrI: 1.09, 1.16). We projected 64 cases (95% CrI: 19, 189) and 41 deaths (95% CrI: 12, 122) during post-NPI period (November 24 to December 15) without interventions. Compared with 4 observed cases, NPIs were associated with an estimated effectiveness of 93.7% (95% CrI: 78.9, 97.9). These findings indicated moderate transmissibility of MVD, and a potential transmission risk reduction following the implementation of control measures, underscoring the importance of timely intervention and sustained surveillance regarding local MVD activities.

Indexed as

Control measureEthiopiaMarburg virus diseaseReproduction numberTransmission risk

Identifiers

PMID42325474
PMCPMC13279152

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.