ArticleiScience2026
Climate resilient rubber cultivation zoning via species distribution and spatial optimization.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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Authors and funding
9 authors.
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Abstract
Climate change is reshaping the geographic envelope of rubber cultivation in China, creating risks of maladaptation from ill-informed expansion or abandonment of viable regions. We compared five species distribution models (GLM, RF, BRT, MaxNet, and MaxEnt) under identical samples and spatial cross-validation, then projected suitability to 2100 under CMIP6 scenarios. MaxEnt demonstrated the highest accuracy and transferability (AUC 0.973, TSS > 0.90) and was retained for final projections. Isothermality and dry-season precipitation emerged as primary limiting factors. Under moderate emissions (SSP245), highly suitable areas expand by 153% by 2100 with a northward shift, whereas extreme warming (SSP585) triggers heat and drought stresses that limit expansion. Integrating MaxEnt outputs with Marxan spatial optimization identified 480 priority planning units covering 1.9% of the national territory at minimal cost. This workflow translates climate-sensitive suitability into actionable spatial priorities, supporting resilient development of China's rubber sector under uncertainty.
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