ArticleScientific reports2026
Impact of land use change on the long-term economic value of carbon sequestration in Central Alborz, Iran.
Article in Scientific reports, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Land use change plays a pivotal role in determining the economic value of ecosystem services, especially carbon sequestration. This study investigates the long-term effects of different land use transitions on the valuation of carbon sequestration in the Kojur watershed, located in the central Alborz region of Iran, over five time periods: 2003-2013, 2003-2023, 2013-2023, 2023-2035, and 2023-2050. By integrating spatial datasets into the InVEST modeling framework, land use scenarios were evaluated comparatively to estimate the net present value (NPV). Also, to improve the accuracy of estimating the economic value of carbon sequestration, the future trend of carbon price was forecasted using ARIMA and GARCH time series models to realistically incorporate price changes in future periods into NPV calculations. The analysis included a carbon price of US$96 per tonne, a discount rate of 4%, and an annual carbon price growth rate of 0.44%. The Net Present Value (NPV) analysis revealed that the conversion of agricultural and rangeland areas to forests yields the highest long-term economic benefits, increasing from US$11,433 in the period 2003-2013 to US$63,344 by 2050. Conversely, the conversion of rangelands to rainfed croplands resulted in the most substantial economic losses, reaching US$31,158 in the long term (2050). The findings show that converting agricultural and rangeland areas to forests consistently yielded the highest long-term economic benefits, while converting from rangelands to rainfed croplands resulted in significant economic losses. These results emphasize the need for careful land-use planning and the protection of natural vegetation as essential tools in countering the negative impacts of land-use change.
Indexed as
Identifiers
What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.