Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42316515›Full record

Trial reportObesity (Silver Spring, Md.)2026

Prospective Association Between Weight Variability and Subsequent Long-Term Weight Loss in the CALERIE Study.

Branislav Jovanovic, Simar Singh, Fengqing Zhang, Edward A Williams, Susan B Roberts, Michael R Lowe

Registry-linked trialAbstract readMulticenter StudyRandomized Controlled Trial
In one paragraph

Trial report in Obesity (Silver Spring, Md.), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT00427193 (Comprehensive Assessment of Long-Term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT00427193 nacompletednot on this map

Comprehensive Assessment of Long-Term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE)

TypeinterventionalSponsorDuke UniversityRan2007 to 2012Enrolled238ConditionsAgingArmsCaloric Restriction (CR), Control
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

6 authors.

Branislav JovanovicDepartment of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-1695-4143
Simar SinghDepartment of Psychiatry and Behavioral Sciences, University of California, San Francisco, California, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0002-3170-2924
Fengqing ZhangDepartment of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.ORCID https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2736-2303
Edward A WilliamsDepartment of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.
Susan B RobertsThe Geisel School of Medicine, Dartmouth College, Hanover, New Hampshire, USA.
Michael R LoweDepartment of Psychological and Brain Sciences, Drexel University, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectiveHigher short-term weight variability (WV) predicts greater subsequent weight gain in weight-stable adults and toddlers and lower long-term weight loss among adults with overweight or obesity who previously lost weight. We extend prior work by examining the impact of naturally occurring WV on subsequent weight loss (weight at month 3 minus later weights) in individuals without obesity enrolled in the Comprehensive Assessment of the Long-term Effects of Reducing Intake of Energy (CALERIE) study.

methodsParticipants (N = 143) followed a 25% caloric restriction diet over 2 years. WV was calculated as the root-mean-squared-error of individuals' weights over the first 12 weeks. Multilevel models examined WV's prediction of subsequent weight loss at 6, 12, 18, and 24 months relative to month 3, adjusting for baseline BMI, 12-week weight change, and demographic variables. Sensitivity analyses further included time-varying adherence and eating behaviors (disinhibition, restraint, craving).

resultsHigher WV was associated with less subsequent weight loss at 6 months (B = -0.38, 95% CI [-0.63, -0.13], β = -0.16, p = 0.003). The interaction between time and WV was not significant; analyses suggested the association extends through year 1.

conclusionsShort-term WV predicted lower subsequent weight loss in adults without obesity. Once its biobehavioral mechanisms are understood, WV might provide insight into humans' innate capacity for long-term weight stability and inform future mechanistic research and clinical interventions.

trial registrationClinicalTrials.gov registration: NCT00427193.

Indexed as

Body WeightCaloric RestrictionObesityOverweightWeight LossAdultBody Mass IndexDiet, ReducingEnergy IntakeFeeding BehaviorFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesTime Factorsweight changeweight fluctuationweight lossweight maintenanceweight variability

Identifiers

PMID42316515
PMCPMC13306132

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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.