ArticleFrontiers in pediatrics2026
Risk factors and prediction model for necrotizing enterocolitis in preterm infants with gestational age ≤ 32 weeks: a retrospective cohort study.
Article in Frontiers in pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: To develop a reference tool for necrotizing enterocolitis(NEC) prevention and treatment by constructing a predictive model for NEC risk in preterm infants (≤32 weeks' gestation) in Guangxi, China. Methods: The clinical data of 497 preterm infants with gestational age ≤32 weeks managed at four neonatal care centers in Guangxi between January 2,019 and December 2021 were retrospectively reviewed. The cohort was randomly divided into a training set (for model development) and a test set (for model validation) in an 8:2 ratio. Within the training set, non-NEC infants were randomly selected to match NEC infants at a 1:1 ratio for comparative analysis. Univariate analysis was first performed to compare clinical indicators between the NEC and non-NEC groups and to identify potential predictors. Subsequently, independent risk factors were determined using binary logistic regression analysis, and a nomogram for predicting NEC risk was constructed using R software. Model performance was evaluated using the area under the receiver operating characteristic (ROC) curve, the Hosmer-Lemeshow goodness-of-fit test, and calibration curves. Results: The incidence of NEC among preterm infants with gestational age ≤32 weeks was 12.27% (61/497). Univariate analysis revealed significant differences between the two groups in gestational age, birth weight, 5-minute Apgar score, presence of neonatal respiratory distress syndrome (NRDS), intrauterine growth restriction (IUGR), sepsis, fungal infection, and the use of both invasive and non-invasive ventilation ( Conclusion: The predictive model developed in this study demonstrates good discriminatory power and calibration, and is effective in assessing the risk of NEC in preterm infants with a gestational age of ≤32 weeks in the Guangxi region. It provides valuable guidance for the early prevention and treatment of NEC in this population.
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