Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42307948›Full record

ArticleJAMA network open2026

Influenza Activity and Estimated Vaccine Effectiveness During the 2025-2026 Influenza Season.

Eduardo Azziz-Baumgartner, Alicia Budd, Justin S Lee, A Danielle Iuliano, Sascha R Ellington, Min Z Levine, Xiao-Yu Zheng, Larisa Gubareva, Katherine Adams, Jennifer DeCuir and 33 more

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in JAMA network open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

43 authors.

Eduardo Azziz-BaumgartnerInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Alicia BuddInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Justin S LeeInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
A Danielle IulianoInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Sascha R EllingtonInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Min Z LevineInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Xiao-Yu ZhengInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Larisa GubarevaInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Katherine AdamsInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Jennifer DeCuirInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Catherine H BozioInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Carrie ReedInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Marie K KirbyInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Benjamin Rambo-MartinInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Jefferson M JonesInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Matthew BiggerstaffInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Shikha GargInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Charles Todd DavisInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Tom T ShimabukuroInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Erin BurnsInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Rebecca KondorInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Sonja J OlsenInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Vivien G DuganInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
VISION Coauthors
Stephanie A IrvingKaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon.
Allison L NalewayKaiser Permanente Center for Health Research, Portland, Oregon.
Kristin DascombDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Health, Salt Lake City, Utah.
Tamara SheffieldDivision of Infectious Diseases and Clinical Epidemiology, Intermountain Health, Salt Lake City, Utah.
Malini B DeSilvaHealthPartners Institute, Minneapolis, Minnesota.
Sara Y TartofDepartment of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena.
Lina S SyDepartment of Research & Evaluation, Kaiser Permanente Southern California, Pasadena.
Nicola P KleinKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland.
Ousseny ZerboKaiser Permanente Vaccine Study Center, Kaiser Permanente Northern California Division of Research, Oakland.
Shaun J GrannisCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana.
Brian E DixonCenter for Biomedical Informatics, Regenstrief Institute, Indianapolis, Indiana.
Melissa S StockwellDivision of Child and Adolescent Health, Department of Pediatrics, Columbia University, New York, New York.
Ashley B StephensDivision of Child and Adolescent Health, Department of Pediatrics, Columbia University, New York, New York.
Toan C OngSchool of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora.
Michelle A BarronSchool of Medicine, University of Colorado Anschutz Medical Campus, Aurora.
Sarah W BallWestat, Inc, Rockville, Maryland.
Zachary A WeberWestat, Inc, Rockville, Maryland.
Emily L ReevesInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.
Caitlin S RayInfluenza Division, National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases, Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, Atlanta, Georgia.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Importance: Antigenically drifted influenza A(H3N2) J.2.4.1 (subclade K) viruses predominated during the 2025-2026 Northern Hemisphere influenza season. Objective: To describe influenza activity and burden, characterize subclade K, evaluate susceptibility to influenza antivirals and postinfluenza vaccination antibodies, and estimate vaccine effectiveness. Design, Setting, and Participants: This surveillance study used multiple data sources, including (1) national surveillance of influenza-positive respiratory specimens collected by approximately 300 clinical laboratories and 100 public health laboratories from October 1, 2025, through March 14, 2026, a subset of which were further characterized; (2) serologic data of people who received 2025-2026 influenza vaccines; (3) influenza admissions data from the Influenza Hospitalization Surveillance Network (ie, 10% of US population) and the associated estimates of US burden; and (4) test-negative, case-control vaccine effectiveness estimates from the Virtual SARS-CoV-2, Influenza, and Other Respiratory Viruses Network. Exposures: Influenza infection, hospitalization, and vaccination. Main Outcomes and Measures: Outcomes included influenza virus type, subtype, and clade; antiviral susceptibility; immunogenicity; influenza-associated outpatient and emergency department visits, hospitalizations, and mortality; estimated influenza illnesses, hospitalizations, and death; and estimated vaccine effectiveness. Results: As of March 14, 2026, of the 55 318 influenza-positive respiratory specimens tested by public health laboratories, most (50 291 specimens [90.9%]) were influenza A, of which 40 779 (81.1%) were subtyped and 35 801 (87.8%) were A(H3N2). Of the 1754 characterized A(H3N2) viruses, most (1626 specimens [92.7%]) were subclade K. Postinfluenza vaccination neutralizing geometric mean antibody titers against subclade K were reduced 1.62 (95% CI, 1.29-2.02)-fold compared with the vaccine virus. All 1729 tested A(H3N2) viruses were sensitive to antivirals. Of the 27 881 recorded influenza hospitalizations, 15 426 (54.7%) were among female patients, and 15 051 (54.0%) were among patients aged 65 years or older. The estimated cumulative influenza-associated hospitalization rate was 80.0 per 100 000 which would correlate with estimates of between 28 000 000 to 49 000 000 illnesses, 360 000 to 740 000 hospitalizations, and 22 000 to 74 000 deaths in the US during the 2025-2026 season. Adjusted interim vaccine effectiveness estimates against influenza-associated emergency department or urgent care encounters and hospitalizations were 35% (95% CI, 33%-38%) and 27% (95% CI, 21%-34%), respectively. Conclusions and Relevance: This surveillance study found that while antigenically drifted viruses predominated and caused substantial morbidity and mortality, influenza vaccines were associated with a reduced risk of influenza among those who were vaccinated, and recommended antivirals remained effective.

Indexed as

Influenza A Virus, H3N2 SubtypeInfluenza, HumanInfluenza VaccinesVaccine EfficacyAdolescentAdultAgedAntiviral AgentsChildChild, PreschoolFemaleHospitalizationHumansInfantInfluenza B virusMaleAntiviral AgentsInfluenza Vaccines

Identifiers

PMID42307948
PMCPMC13276621

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.