Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42307380›Full record

SynthesisArquivos brasileiros de cardiologia2026

Artificial Intelligence-Derived ECG-Age as a Predictor of Mortality and Cardiovascular Events: A Systematic Review and Meta-Analysis.

Isadora Cristine Reis Sguizzato Bozzi, Maria Clara de Araujo Gontijo Lima, Antonio Luiz Pinho Ribeiro, Gabriela Miana de Mattos Paixão

Abstract readSystematic ReviewMeta-Analysis
In one paragraph

Synthesis in Arquivos brasileiros de cardiologia, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers, 1 of them a synthesis that pooled it.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed, 1 pooled it
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed, 1 synthesis or guideline pooled it.

  1. Pooled it
  2. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

4 authors.

Isadora Cristine Reis Sguizzato BozziCentro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brasil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-3800-7107
Maria Clara de Araujo Gontijo LimaFaculdade de Medicina da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brasil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0009-3873-0520
Antonio Luiz Pinho RibeiroCentro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brasil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-2740-0042
Gabriela Miana de Mattos PaixãoCentro de Telessaúde, Hospital das Clínicas da Universidade Federal de Minas Gerais, Belo Horizonte, MG - Brasil.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0003-1349-1745

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundArtificial intelligence (AI)-derived electrocardiographic age (ECG-age) and the difference between ECG-age and chronological age (delta-age) are emerging biomarkers of cardiovascular aging and adverse outcomes, but their prognostic value remains unclear.

objectivesWe performed a systematic review and meta-analysis to evaluate associations between AI-derived ECG-age or delta-age and clinical outcomes.

methodsNine databases were searched through May 1, 2025. Eligible studies evaluated mortality or cardiovascular events and reported measures of association. Pooled hazard ratios (pHRs) with 95% confidence intervals (CIs) were calculated via fixed- or random-effects models, with statistical significance set at p < 0.05. The protocol was registered in PROSPERO (CRD420251042467).

resultsTen studies (2021-2025) with over 550,000 participants from East Asia, the Americas, and the UK were included. Most used convolutional neural networks to estimate ECG-age; delta-age was calculated as ECG-age minus chronological age. Elevated delta-age was associated with increased all-cause mortality (pHR = 1.83, 95% CI: 1.45-2.32) and cardiovascular mortality (pHR = 2.63, 95% CI: 1.93-3.58). Three studies reported increased risk of atrial fibrillation (pHR = 1.96, 95% CI: 1.43-2.69), although data were limited and heterogeneous. Descriptive analyses suggested that greater delta-age predicts incident heart failure and stroke.

conclusionsAI-derived ECG-age, particularly delta-age, is associated with all-cause and cardiovascular mortality, supporting its role as a noninvasive biomarker of cardiovascular aging. Evidence for atrial fibrillation is suggestive but limited. Standardized algorithms, robust external validation, and prospective multicenter studies are needed to confirm clinical utility and integrate ECG-age into risk stratification, even in asymptomatic individuals.

Indexed as

AgingArtificial IntelligenceCardiovascular DiseasesElectrocardiographyAge FactorsHumansPredictive Value of TestsPrognosisRisk Factors

Identifiers

PMID42307380
PMCPMC13398890

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Registered trials

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Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.