ArticleFrontiers in pediatrics2026
Platelet-related parameters at initial diagnosis for predicting the risk of chronicity in children with newly diagnosed immune thrombocytopenia.
Article in Frontiers in pediatrics, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objective: To investigate the clinical value of platelet-related parameters and clinical characteristics at initial diagnosis in predicting the risk of progression to chronic disease in children with newly diagnosed immune thrombocytopenia (ITP), and to develop an individualized risk prediction model. Methods: This single-center retrospective cohort study consecutively enrolled pediatric patients who were newly diagnosed with primary immune thrombocytopenia at the Department of Pediatrics of our hospital between January 2022 and January 2025. According to disease course and whether the duration exceeded 12 months, patients were categorized into the chronic immune thrombocytopenia (CITP) group ( Results: Children in the CITP group were significantly older at initial diagnosis. Among platelet-related parameters, the platelet count at diagnosis was significantly lower in the CITP group, whereas mean platelet volume and immature platelet fraction were significantly higher. Multivariate analysis demonstrated that older age, lower platelet count, and higher immature platelet fraction were independent risk factors for progression from newly diagnosed ITP to chronic disease. ROC curve analysis indicated that the combined predictive model incorporating age, platelet count, and immature platelet fraction achieved the best performance, which was significantly superior to any single indicator alone. The nomogram constructed based on these variables showed good calibration, and DCA confirmed a substantial net clinical benefit across a wide range of threshold probabilities. Conclusion: Age at diagnosis, platelet count, and immature platelet fraction are effective predictors of chronicity in children with ITP. A nomogram integrating these three parameters demonstrates favorable predictive accuracy and potential clinical applicability. Nevertheless, these findings require further validation through multicenter prospective studies.
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