Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42299695›Full record

ArticleFuture oncology (London, England)2026

Time-to-progression ratio as a potential study endpoint in early-phase oncology trials: pooled analysis of phase II trials from the Australian MoST program.

Derrick H W Siu, Frank P Y Lin, David M Thomas, Subotheni Thavaneswaran, David Espinoza, Sarah Chinchen, Mandy L Ballinger, R John Simes, Chee Khoon Lee

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In one paragraph

Article in Future oncology (London, England), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
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1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Derrick H W SiuNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2219-2459
Frank P Y LinNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0001-9250-6874
David M ThomasCentre for Molecular Oncology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-2527-5428
Subotheni ThavaneswaranNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-8946-6709
David EspinozaNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0009-0003-1048-0650
Sarah ChinchenNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.
Mandy L BallingerCentre for Molecular Oncology, Faculty of Medicine and Health, University of New South Wales, Sydney, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-9706-0514
R John SimesNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0002-3740-7563
Chee Khoon LeeNHMRC Clinical Trials Centre, The University of Sydney, Camperdown, NSW, Australia.ORCID 0000-0003-2955-9820

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeTime-to-progression ratio (TTPr) measures intra-patient treatment benefit by comparing disease control on study treatment with that of the immediately preceding therapy. Its prognostic validity in the immune checkpoint inhibitor (ICI) era remains uncertain.

methodsWe performed a pooled patient-level analysis of eight phase II trials. Associations between TTPr, TTP on prior therapy (TTP1), and on-study TTP (TTP2/ PFS), objective response rate (ORR), with overall survival (OS) were evaluated using Cox regression. Landmark analyses at 6-months were used to mitigate guarantee-time bias.

resultsAmong 246 evaluable participants, median TTP1 and TTP2 were 3.9 and 2.1 months, respectively, with poor correlation (

conclusionsTTPr is not a robust prognostic measure in platform trials. Although this raises concern regarding its validity as a surrogate endpoint for OS, formal evaluation requires randomized treatment comparisons.

Indexed as

Clinical Trials, Phase II as TopicEndpoint DeterminationImmune Checkpoint InhibitorsNeoplasmsAgedAustraliaDisease ProgressionFemaleHumansMaleMiddle AgedPrognosisTime FactorsTreatment OutcomeImmune Checkpoint Inhibitorsdrug developmentearly-phase oncology trialsendpointgrowth modulation indexprecision oncologyprogression-free survival ratioTime to progression ratio

Identifiers

PMID42299695
PMCPMC13390511

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.