Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42297455›Full record

ArticleBMJ open2026

Tuberculosis death prediction calculator for prospective use at diagnosis in resource-constrained programme settings: a statewide cohort study.

Suseendar Shanmugasundaram, Hemant Deepak Shewade, Ramalingam Srinivasan, Asha Frederick, Ramasamy Sabarinathan, Premkumar Harish, Deepan Balu, Jeen M Melfha, Kumari Gayathri, Radhakrishnan Vijayaprabha and 5 more

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Article in BMJ open, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

15 authors.

Suseendar ShanmugasundaramHealth Systems Research, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Hemant Deepak ShewadeHealth Systems Research, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India hemantjipmer@gmail.com.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-8242-1911
Ramalingam SrinivasanInfectious Disease Epidemiology, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Asha FrederickState TB Office, Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, India.
Ramasamy SabarinathanComputing and Information Sciences, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Premkumar HarishICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Deepan BaluS.A. Engineering College, Chennai, Chennai, India.
Jeen M MelfhaHealth Systems Research, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Kumari GayathriSchool of Public Health, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Radhakrishnan VijayaprabhaHealth Systems Research, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Annadurai JeyakumarSchool of Public Health, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Dilsadh KabirHealth Systems Research, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.
Meikappan EraivanState TB Office, Government of Tamil Nadu, Chennai, India.
Tarun BhatnagarSchool of Public Health, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-5603-1418
Manoj V MurhekarInfectious Disease Epidemiology, ICMR National Institute of Epidemiology (ICMR-NIE), Chennai, India.ORCID http://orcid.org/0000-0002-1720-7628

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

objectivesTo develop predictive models for early and overall tuberculosis (TB) deaths for prospective use at TB diagnosis in resource-constrained TB programme settings.

designStatewide cohort study using routinely captured secondary data.

settingWith the majority of TB deaths being early (within 2 months), India's TB programme's information management system (

participantsAdults (aged ≥15 years) with TB (not known to be drug-resistant at diagnosis) that were notified from public facilities of Tamil Nadu from July 2022 to June 2023. OUTCOME MEASURES: Early and overall (within 12 months of notification) TB deaths. Area under the receiver operating characteristic curve (AUC) was used to assess accuracy of models built using modified Poisson regression.

resultsAmong 55 971 adults, the overall death rate was 7.4%, and 67.9% of the deaths were early. In predicting overall deaths, accuracy of the model using all

conclusionSimple and easily measurable triage variables for severe illness should be routinely captured at TB diagnosis. A death prediction calculator (http://44.208.93.99/) based on these variables (specifically triage variables for severe illness combined with age, gender, TB site, previous treatment and microbiological confirmation) may be used by Indian states and high TB burden countries seeking scalable, data-driven interventions to reduce TB deaths.

Indexed as

TuberculosisAdolescentAdultCohort StudiesFemaleHumansIndiaMaleMiddle AgedProspective StudiesResource-Limited SettingsROC CurveTriageYoung AdultDifferentiated TB careOperational ResearchPredictive modelsRisk stratificationTB mortalityTriaging for severe illness

Identifiers

PMID42297455
PMCPMC13319640

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