Chronic absenteeism in Canadian kindergarten classes, pre- and post-COVID-19, and its association with concurrent developmental vulnerability.

Students who frequently miss school are at greater risk for academic difficulty. High levels of absenteeism as early as kindergarten have been associated with long-term consequences, such as low reading proficiency in Grade 3 and low academic achievement in Grade 5, both of which have been associated with lower rates of high school graduation and enrollment in post-secondary education. The prevalence of school absenteeism has increased significantly since the COVID-19 pandemic and there have been sustained shifts in student attendance rates from kindergarten to Grade 12 since 2020. The goals of this population-level, repeated cross-sectional cohort study were to compare rates of chronic absenteeism, defined as being absent from school at least 10% of the time, in kindergarten in Canada before and after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic, and examine the association between children's chronic absenteeism and their concurrent developmental vulnerability. A total of 513,159 kindergarten children participated in the study, with 284,712 (55.5%) being in the pre-COVID-19 cohort (2017-2020) and 228,447 (44.5%) in the post-COVID-19 cohort (2020-2023). Across Canada, rates of chronic absenteeism increased from pre- to post-COVID-19, from 17.7% to 41.3%, with differences by jurisdiction. The greatest increase was seen in Ontario, while the smallest increase was seen in British Columbia. Children attending kindergarten in the post-COVID-19 cohort were three times more likely to be chronically absent compared to their peers attending kindergarten before the onset of the pandemic. Despite this, chronic absenteeism in the post-COVID-19 period was associated with reduced odds of overall developmental vulnerability, a pattern that is likely attributable to shifts in the composition of chronically absent children. In the post-COVID-19 cohort, a greater percentage of children who were chronically absent resided in higher SES neighbourhoods compared to their chronically absent peers attending school before the onset of the pandemic. While increasing rates of school absenteeism should not be ignored, our results suggest that chronic absenteeism following COVID-19 might be more nuanced than before. The jurisdictional differences in rates of chronic absenteeism observed in this study could be due to the various public health measures put in place by the various provincial and territorial governments. It is also possible that the children from higher SES neighbourhoods missed more school after the onset of the COVID-19 pandemic because their parents had the capability to work from home, making it easier to keep their child(ren) home from school. The decreased association between chronic absenteeism and developmental vulnerability post-COVID-19 may be partially related to changes in access to online learning resources, which could have enabled some students to remain academically engaged while at home. However, further research is needed to better understand the underlying reasons for school absence and how the relation between absenteeism and academic achievement may vary across developmental stages to effectively support learning trajectories.