Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42293655›Full record

ArticleFrontiers in public health2026

Protocol-aware epidemic forecasting across heterogeneous public health surveillance systems.

Yihan Hu, Jingyuan Han, Mingxin Liu

Abstract read
In one paragraph

Article in Frontiers in public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 2 papers.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
2citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

2 citing papers in PubMed.

  1. Article
  2. Article
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

3 authors.

Yihan HuMedical Research Council (MRC) Epidemiology Unit, School of Clinical Medicine, Institute of Metabolic Science, University of Cambridge, Cambridge, United Kingdom.
Jingyuan HanDepartment of Cancer Prevention and Control, National Cancer Center, Chinese Academy of Medical Sciences and Peking Union Medical College, Beijing, China.
Mingxin LiuDepartment of Health Communication, Graduate School of Medicine, The University of Tokyo, Tokyo, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Purpose: Public-health forecasting is central to epidemic intelligence and operational decision support. In practice, surveillance data are affected by reporting delays, revisions, and backfill, as well as abrupt regime shifts, which often reduce model reliability across regions and systems. Methods: We developed EpiMap-LLM, a protocol-aware forecasting approach that links epidemic dynamics with surveillance context using a frozen language-model backbone and lightweight trainable components. Results: Across daily and weekly surveillance settings (JHU CSSE COVID-19 and CDC influenza hospitalization surveillance), EpiMap-LLM consistently improves MAE and RMSE over strong forecasting baselines. Conclusion: Protocol-aware forecasting improves robustness and practical usefulness for surveillance dashboards, early warning, and public-health decision support in heterogeneous reporting systems.

Indexed as

COVID-19EpidemicsPublic Health SurveillanceDashboard SystemsForecastingHumansLarge Language ModelsUnited Statesdata revisionsepidemic forecastinghealth information systemsprotocol-aware modelingpublic health surveillancereporting delays and backfill

Identifiers

PMID42293655
PMCPMC13260628

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY
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Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.