ArticleiScience2026
Climate-adaptive and low-carbon multi-objective water resources optimization in arid oasis cities.
Article in iScience, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
To address the intensifying water supply-demand imbalance in arid regions under climate change and low-carbon development, this study uses Shihezi City, Xinjiang, as a case study. CMIP6 climate data were used to drive an LSTM model for basin-scale runoff projection, and a multi-objective water resources optimization framework was developed by integrating NSGA-III with CRITIC-TOPSIS, considering water shortage, economic benefits, pollutant emissions, and water-use carbon emissions. Results show that future runoff in the Manas River Basin generally declines, with the most pronounced reduction in September; by 2030, water scarcity in Shihezi City remains substantial. The optimal scheme under SSP1-2.6 performs well in water conservation and carbon reduction; SSP2-4.5 balances economic development and environmental protection, whereas SSP5-8.5 delivers higher economic benefits but greater environmental pressure. The results provide support for efficient water resources allocation and low-carbon utilization in arid oasis cities.
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