Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42289020›Full record

ArticleEuropean spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society2026

Central sensitization-related symptoms in patients undergoing lumbar spine surgery: development and internal validation of a clinical prediction rule for first-stage screening.

Yu Kondo, Yuta Watanabe, Keita Tsushima, Ryo Otsuki, Kota Miura, Yuna Kamewari, Reika Wachi, Takahiro Miki, Tsuneo Takebayashi

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Article in European spine journal : official publication of the European Spine Society, the European Spinal Deformity Society, and the European Section of the Cervical Spine Research Society, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

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1 · What the graph read from it

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4 · The record

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5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

9 authors.

Yu KondoDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan. y.kondo.reha@gmail.com.
Yuta WatanabeDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Keita TsushimaDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Ryo OtsukiDepartment of Rehabilitation, Totsuka Sports Medical Center, Yokohama, Japan.
Kota MiuraDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Yuna KamewariDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Reika WachiDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Takahiro MikiDepartment of Rehabilitation, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.
Tsuneo TakebayashiDepartment of Orthopedic Surgery, Sapporo Maruyama Orthopedic Hospital, Sapporo, Japan.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

purposeCentral sensitization (CS)-related symptoms are associated with poor outcomes after lumbar spine surgery, but universal screening may be inefficient when only a minority of patients are affected. This study aimed to develop and internally validate a clinical prediction rule (CPR) to screen for elevated CS-related symptom burden (Central Sensitization Inventory-9 [CSI-9] ≥ 20) using routinely collected clinical variables.

methodsIn this cross-sectional diagnostic prediction model study, 674 consecutive patients scheduled for lumbar spine surgery were included; 97 (14.4%) had CSI-9 scores ≥ 20. Seven candidate predictors were evaluated using logistic regression with backward elimination. A 3-item CPR was derived by dichotomizing retained predictors at Youden-optimal cutpoints. Internal validation used 1,000 bootstrap resamples.

resultsThree predictors were retained: age ≤ 60 years, ≥ 5 pain sites, and sleep disturbance (Oswestry Disability Index sleep item ≥ 1). The CPR showed discrimination comparable to the full model (AUC, 0.730; DeLong P = 0.872). At the optimal cutoff (≥ 2 points), sensitivity was 73.2%, specificity 65.0%, and negative predictive value 93.5%. Low-risk patients (score 0-1; 59.5% of the cohort) had an event rate of 6.5%. Decision curve analysis confirmed positive net benefit across threshold probabilities of 5-40%.

conclusionA simple 3-item CPR demonstrated moderate discrimination with high negative predictive value for elevated CS-related symptom burden before lumbar spine surgery. The rule may serve as a practical first-stage screen to guide selective CSI-9 administration.

Indexed as

Central sensitizationClinical prediction ruleLumbar spine surgeryPreoperative screening

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