Predictive value of aortic propagation velocity for cardiovascular events in asymptomatic individuals with elevated ASCVD risk.

Prediction of cardiovascular diseases (CVD) is a challenge that cardiologists have always faced all the times. Aortic propagation velocity (APV) is an echocardiography index that can be helpful with this regard; however, few studies have addressed the condition. This prospective cohort study was conducted at the outpatient clinic of Imam Reza and Quaem Hospital in Mashhad, Iran. It was conducted on cases with ASCVD score of > 10. All the cases underwent echocardiography and APV was measured for them. The cases were classified into two groups including normal APV (> 56 cm/s) and abnormal APV (≤ 56 cm/s). They were followed for a duration of 1 year and the rate of CVD was compared between the two groups. Moreover, ROC curve analysis was used for determining a cut-off. The primary endpoint was a composite of major adverse cardiovascular events (MACE): non-fatal MI, non-fatal stroke, coronary revascularization, or cardiovascular death. A total of 60 cases, including 37 (61.7%) males and 23 (38.3%) females, were enrolled. After 1 year of follow-up, 7 cases developed MACE: 6 in the abnormal APV group and 1 in the normal APV group (p = 0.039). Logistic regression analysis showed a significant relationship between APV and MACE development (OR = 2.10 per 10 cm/s decrease in APV; 95% CI 1.116-3.932; p = 0.02). ROC curve analysis proposed a cut-off of 49.75 cm/s with a sensitivity of 85.7% and specificity of 60% (AUC = 0.710; 95% CI 0.585-0.835; p = 0.072). Seven cases developed MACE (non-fatal MI, stroke, revascularization, or CV death). APV showed a trend toward prognostic value for MACE, suggesting it may serve as a potential adjunctive marker in this high-risk population; however, larger studies are needed to confirm these findings.