Predicting Microbial Growth Dynamics in Commercial Cocoa-Flavored Plant-Based Milk Alternatives.

This study evaluated the growth of Bacillus cereus, Escherichia coli, and Salmonella Typhimurium in commercially available cocoa-flavored plant-based milk alternatives (PBMAs) under different temperatures and examined the influence of product composition on bacterial development. Bacterial populations were monitored over 12 h at 25°C for all strains and additionally at their optimal growth temperatures (30°C for B. cereus, 37°C for E. coli, and S. Typhimurium). The nutritional composition of the PBMAs was analyzed, and principal component analysis (PCA) was performed to identify key compositional factors. Results showed that the increase in E. coli and Salmonella Typhimurium population was significantly higher at 37°C than at 25°C on all cocoa-flavored PBMAs (p < 0.05), whereas for B. cereus, the differences between 25°C and 30°C were relatively small, with statistical significance observed only for Substrate A (p < 0.05). Growth was significantly influenced by bacterial species (MS = 10.49, p < 0.001), substrate composition (MS = 0.48, p < 0.001), and interaction of both these factors (MS = 0.29, p = 0.001). The formulated regression models based on environmental factor (temperature), PCA scores (reflecting substrate composition, particularly protein, fiber, fat, sodium, and energy balance, and for B. cereus also sodium, fiber, and pH-related properties), and time, accurately reproduced bacterial growth (R