ArticleBollettino della Unione matematica italiana (2008)2026
Epidemicity conditions in spatial models of infectious diseases.
Article in Bollettino della Unione matematica italiana (2008), 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
We review the work that has been conducted in the past years to understand when and why significant epidemics may arise even though a disease is not bound to become endemic in the long run i.e. subthreshold outbreaks. In particular, we describe the methods that allow the analysis of such outbreaks not only in time but also in space. To that end, we introduce a broad class of spatially explicit mathematical models of water- and air-borne diseases. These models consist of coupled ordinary differential or difference equations. The spatial coupling is obtained via suitable networks that describe connectivity via waterways or human mobility, or both (multiplex networks). We derive exact epidemicity conditions under which the disease-free equilibrium, although asymptotically stable, may be characterized by bursts of infections possibly coalescing, epitomized by transient increases of the infected compartments given suitable perturbations. The growth of infections is quantified by means of
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