Improving pear fruit quality without yield loss through 3D point cloud-based estimation of reasonable fruit load.

Fruit quality is a critical determinant of economic returns in pear production, and maintaining an appropriate fruit load (FL) is essential for achieving high yield and quality. As a direct indicator of canopy photosynthetic capacity and assimilate supply, leaf number constitutes the key biological basis of reasonable FL determination under the leaf-to-fruit ratio concept. However, accurate and efficient estimation of leaf number in mature pear trees remains technically challenging, limiting its practical use in precision FL regulation. Here, we propose a data-driven framework for leaf number and reasonable FL estimation by integrating 3D point cloud-derived canopy structure with machine learning. A pipeline for extracting 3D architectural traits was developed and implemented in the software tool FTPCT, enabling rapid and standardized trait acquisition. Through correlation analysis, multicollinearity diagnosis, and variance inflation factor screening, five key traits strongly associated with leaf number were identified and incorporated into five machine learning models optimized using Bayesian optimization. Among them, the optimized random forest regression model achieved the highest and most stable performance, with R