Observational studyBMC public health2026
Time series modeling to predict mortality rates and estimate years of life lost due to injuries in West Azerbaijan province, Iran, 2013-2024.
Observational study in BMC public health, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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7 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundInjuries remain major causes of preventable mortality and premature loss of life. This study aimed to examine 12-year trends in mortality and years of life lost (YLL) due to injuries in West Azerbaijan Province, Iran, and to forecast future mortality patterns.
methodsThis registry-based retrospective observational study investigated the mortality patterns and YLL due to injuries. Data were extracted from the death registration and classification system of the Iranian Ministry of Health and Medical Education. Indicators including crude mortality rates, Age-Standardized Rates (ASR), and YLL were calculated. Future trends were predicted using ARIMA modeling (313).
resultsA total of 20,003 deaths due to injuries were recorded over the 12-year period. The majority of cases were men (76%) and occurred in urban areas (59.7%). The annual number of deaths increased by 37.94%, rising from 1,389 in 2013 to 1,916 in 2024. Traffic accidents remained the primary cause of death (increasing by 21.35%), while suicide rates showed a significant surge of 141.50%. The total YLL during the study period reached 473,700 years (17 per 1,000 in males and 6 per 1,000 in females). The highest burden of YLL was observed in the 15-29-year age group. Prediction models suggest that mortality will continue to fluctuate between 120 and 182 deaths per month over the next three years.
conclusionInjuries, particularly traffic accidents and the rising trend of suicide, impose a heavy and increasing burden of premature mortality in West Azerbaijan. The high YLL among adolescents and young adults underscores the critical need for urgent preventive strategies, improved road safety measures, and targeted mental health interventions to mitigate this public health crisis.
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