ArticleEnvironmental monitoring and assessment2026
Effects of thermal regime variability on adult rainbow trout (Oncorhynchus mykiss) mortality in Afromontane river systems.
Article in Environmental monitoring and assessment, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Water temperature variability in river systems is a significant environmental concern. This study aimed to assess the effects of thermal regime variability on adult Oncorhynchus mykiss mortality in Afromontane river systems; using time series data spanning from 1994 to 2024. The objectives of the study were to analyze temporal and seasonal trends in water temperature (1994-2024) in Nyanga National Park, Zimbabwe, evaluate how temperature variability relates to adult O. mykiss mortality, and identify critical thermal thresholds that increase mortality. The research used both secondary and primary data. Time series approach with a 5-year moving average analyzed temperature trends, while correlation and regression assessed the relationship between water temperature and rainbow trout mortality, and threshold analysis identified critical temperature limits increasing adult O. mykiss mortality. Seasonal comparisons revealed marked differences in both water temperature and mortality of O. mykiss. Mean water temperature was significantly higher in summer (20.13 ± 0.10 °C) than in winter (13.30 ± 0.13 °C; Welch's t-test, t = 17.91, p < 0.01; n = 93 per season). Similarly, mean mortality was substantially greater during summer (1272 ± 44) compared to winter (229 ± 27), with this difference also highly significant (Welch's t-test, t = 13.17, p < 0.001). Correlation and regression analyses revealed a strong positive association between temperature anomalies and mortality anomalies (ρ = 0.713; R
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