ArticleParasites & vectors2026
Long-term monitoring of sand fly populations: temporal responses to land-use change and climatic variability.
Article in Parasites & vectors, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
backgroundPhlebotomine sand flies are the sole vector of leishmaniasis and other sand fly-borne diseases, and their populations are shaped by climate and human-driven environmental change. While warming is expected to expand sand fly ranges, the joint effects of long-term climatic variability and land-use change on population dynamics remain poorly understood, largely owing to limited long-term monitoring.
methodsWe analyzed an 18-year dataset (2005-2021) from a site in semi-arid Ma'ale Adumim, Israel, using CO
resultsA marked land-cover transformation associated with an irrigated park was identified, increasing dry-season vegetation. Sand fly species showed contrasting long-term trends and phase-dependent responses: Phlebotomus sergenti and P. papatasi were most abundant immediately after landscape modification and declined later, whereas P. tobbi and P. syriacus increased after park establishment. Seasonal activity was strongly species-specific with limited interspecific synchrony. Climatic variability explained little interannual variation overall; only P. tobbi maximum abundance and timing of within-season population increase were associated with the timing of thermal onset.
conclusionsAnthropogenic land-use change dominated long-term sand fly population dynamics, often exceeding climatic effects, and altered habitat suitability in species-specific, phase-dependent ways. Integrating land management and spatial planning into prevention strategies is critical for reducing leishmaniasis risk in human-modified landscapes.
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