Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42249465›Full record

Trial reportTrials2026

Remote, bivariate prior elicitation for a Bayesian non-inferiority randomized controlled trial.

Arlene Jiang, Alex Aregbesola, Apoorva Gangwani, Terry P Klassen, Amy C Plint, Elisabete Doyle, William Craig, Mohamed Eltorki, Banke Oketola, Hoda Badran and 2 more

Registry-linked trialAbstract readClinical Trial, Phase IIIEquivalence TrialMulticenter Study
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Trial report in Trials, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. It is linked to trial NCT06272383 (Using a Single Dose of Dexamethasone at 0.6mg/kg of Body Weight Versus 0.15 mg/kg of Body Weight for the Treatment of Croup), which is not on this map. Not yet cited in PubMed.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
0citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

NCT06272383 phase3completednot on this map

Using a Single Dose of Dexamethasone at 0.6mg/kg of Body Weight Versus 0.15 mg/kg of Body Weight for the Treatment of Croup: an Internal Vanguard Randomized Controlled Non-Inferiority Trial.

TypeinterventionalSponsorUniversity of ManitobaRan2024 to 2025Enrolled50ConditionsCroupArms0.15 mg/kg dexamethasone
3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

0 citing papers in PubMed.

No citing paper in PubMed yet.

4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

12 authors.

Arlene JiangChild Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, 686 Bay Street, Toronto, ON, M5G 0A4, Canada. arlene.jiang@sickkids.ca.ORCID http://orcid.org/0009-0000-3158-8650
Alex AregbesolaChildren's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Apoorva GangwaniChildren's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Terry P KlassenCollege of Medicine, University of Saskatchewan and Jim Pattison Children's Hospital, Saskatchewan Health Authority, Saskatoon, SK, Canada.
Amy C PlintDepartment of Pediatrics, University of Ottawa, Ottawa, ON, Canada.
Elisabete DoyleDepartment of Pediatrics and Child Health, Max Rady College of Medicine, Rady Faculty of Health Sciences, University of Manitoba, Winnipeg, Canada.
William CraigDepartment of Medicine and Dentistry, University of Alberta, Edmonton, AB, Canada.
Mohamed EltorkiDepartment of Pediatrics, Cumming School of Medicine, University of Calgary, Calgary, AB, Canada.
Banke OketolaChildren's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Hoda BadranChildren's Hospital Research Institute of Manitoba, Winnipeg, MB, Canada.
Yongdong Ouyang *Department of Biostatistics and Bioinformatics, Roswell Park Comprehensive Cancer Center, Buffalo, NY, USA.
Anna Heath *Child Health Evaluative Sciences, The Hospital for Sick Children, 686 Bay Street, Toronto, ON, M5G 0A4, Canada.

Funding

Canada Research Chairs RGPIN-2021-03366Research Manitoba 2024 New Investigator Operating Grant #6456
6 · The paper itself

Abstract

backgroundPrior distributions must be specified for the parameters of interest in a Bayesian clinical trial. When existing evidence on the effects of the trial interventions is limited or inconclusive, prior distributions can be constructed with expert elicitation. However, conventional elicitation requires face-to-face interactions and intensive pre-elicitation training, which can be infeasible and costly. Our remote elicitation was based on an established expert elicitation methodology, and we incorporated bivariate prior distributions to introduce dependencies between the elicited probabilities. We aimed to elicit a prior distribution for the Croup Dosing Trial, which assesses the efficacy of two separate doses of dexamethasone on the number of return visits to the emergency department within 7 days in children with croup. This trial evaluates the non-inferiority of 0.15 mg/kg of dexamethasone, compared to the standard dose of 0.60 mg/kg to treat croup.

methodsWe conducted three remote workshops to elicit expert beliefs on the efficacy of the two doses of dexamethasone. Each workshop consisted of two survey rounds, separated by a group discussion. Prior to the workshop, experts reviewed the same current literature that was provided on the effects of the two doses of dexamethasone. Beliefs were aggregated using expert-specific bivariate distributions with latent effects. The aggregated distribution, along with the surveyed non-inferiority margin, determined the sample size for the Bayesian non-inferiority trial design.

resultsTwelve emergency medicine physicians participated in our remote elicitation exercise. The elicitation generated a prior distribution centered at 6% for the 0.60 mg/kg dose and 8% for the 0.15 mg/kg dose. The aggregated prior distribution produced a sample size of 1850, based on a non-inferiority margin of 4%.

conclusionsWe elicited a prior distribution that incorporated past evidence and expert opinion. The elicited prior is consistent with previous literature on the efficacy of the dexamethasone doses in treating croup. Our approach demonstrates the feasibility of remotely eliciting bivariate distributions to design clinical trials.

trial registrationNCT06272383 (Registered May 8, 2024).

Indexed as

CroupDexamethasoneGlucocorticoidsResearch DesignBayes TheoremChildEmergency Service, HospitalHumansTime FactorsTreatment OutcomeDexamethasoneGlucocorticoidsBayesian statisticsExpert elicitationNon-inferiority trialPrior probability distributionRandomized controlled trialsSample size determinationTrial design

Identifiers

PMID42249465
PMCPMC13459373

What OpenQuestion holds

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LicenceCC BY-NC-ND
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Registered trials

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.