ArticleBreast cancer research and treatment2026
The value of innovation in breast cancer treatment: real option value of olaparib for first-line treatment of gBRCA-mutated HER2 negative metastatic breast cancer.
Article in Breast cancer research and treatment, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
What it found
Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.
The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.
Who cites it
0 citing papers in PubMed.
No citing paper in PubMed yet.
Corrections and comments
PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.
Authors and funding
8 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
purposeNovel drugs for metastatic breast cancer (mBC) can provide patients not only with improved survival but also the opportunity to benefit from future treatment innovations, a concept referred to as real option value (ROV). Quantifying the ROV of first-line (1L) olaparib may help clinicians and patients better understand the additional value increased survival provides through access to future innovative therapies.
methodsWe developed a Markov model with progression-free, progression, and death states to estimate long-term survival gain of 1L olaparib versus treatment of physician's choice (TPC; chemotherapy) among patients with HER2-negative mBC. To derive ROV, a scenario without future drug innovation was compared to one including anticipated innovations as of January 2023. ROV parameters were informed by literature, trial data, ongoing studies, and mBC treatment patterns. Clinician expert-reviewed assumptions generated high-, mid-, and low-ROV scenarios. The primary outcome was aggregated life expectancy, weighted between HR+ and TNBC per OlympiAD trial characteristics.
resultsWithout innovation, modeled aggregate survival was 3.16 years with olaparib versus 1.81 years with TPC (Δ1.35 LYs). With innovation, survival increased to 3.91 vs. 2.42 LYs in the high scenario (Δ1.49 LYs; +0.139 LYs vs. no innovation), 3.44 vs. 2.02 LYs in the mid-scenario (Δ1.42 LYs; +0.069 LYs), and 3.24 vs. 1.87 LYs in the low-scenario (Δ1.37 LYs; +0.022 LYs), for olaparib vs. TPC respectively. This corresponded to relative survival increases of 10.3%, 5.1%, and 1.6%, respectively.
conclusionsFirst-line olaparib directly improves survival and can further extend survival by providing access to future innovations. These findings may guide early treatment selection to optimize sequencing and support further evaluation of ROV for additional guideline-recommended treatments in mBC.
Indexed as
Identifiers
42243369What OpenQuestion holds
Registered trials
Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.