Tuberculosis in households with infectious cases in Kampala city: Harnessing health data science for new insights on an ancient disease with persistent, unresolved problems.

Tuberculosis (TB) is prevalent in Uganda and overlaps with a high rate of HIV/TB coinfection. While nearly all hospital-based TB cases in Kampala, the capital of Uganda, show clear TB symptoms, 30% or more of undiagnosed TB cases found through active screening are asymptomatic. Additionally, the host risk factors for TB in Kampala cannot be distinguished from environmental risk factors. These TB-specific challenges are just part of the complexity, especially in areas with high HIV/AIDS burden. Data science techniques, especially Artificial Intelligence (AI) and Machine Learning (ML) algorithms, could help untangle this complexity by identifying factors related to the host, pathogen, and environment, which are difficult to explain or predict with traditional/conventional methods. In this project, we will use health data science approaches (AI/ML) to identify factors driving TB transmission within households and reasons for anti-TB treatment failure. We will utilize the computational resources at Makerere University and available demographic, clinical, and laboratory data from TB patients and their contacts to develop AI and ML algorithms. These will aim to: (1) identify patients at baseline (month 0) unlikely to convert their sputum or culture results by months 2 and 5, thus at risk of failing TB treatment; (2) identify household contacts of TB cases who are at risk of developing TB disease, as well as contacts who may resist TB infection despite repeated exposure to M. tuberculosis. Achieving these objectives will provide evidence that data science methods are effective for early detection of potential TB cases and high-risk patients, thereby helping to reduce TB transmission in the community. The study protocol received approval from the School of Biomedical Sciences IRB, protocol number SBS-2023-495.