ArticleSaudi medical journal2026
Ethnic Background as a Determinant of Thyroid Cancer Risk: A Decade-Long National Cohort Study Reveals Divergent Epidemics in Saudi Arabia.
Article in Saudi medical journal, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Not yet cited in PubMed.
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Abstract
Objectives: To analyze and compare temporal trends, demographic characteristics, and stage at diagnosis for thyroid cancer (TC) between Saudi and non-Saudi populations in order to identify potential population-specific etiological drivers. Methods: We conducted a national retrospective cohort study of TC cases in Saudi Arabia from 2013-2022. To assess population-level trends, we computed age-standardized incidence rates (ASIRs) and multivariable Poisson regression alongside piecewise regression models for comparative analysis. Results: Among 14,159 total cases, TC incidence increased disproportionately in Saudi nationals, rising from 884 to 1,677 (90%), significantly outpacing the 184 to 275 (49%) increase observed in non-Saudis. The incidence rate ratio for Saudis versus non-Saudis was 5.67 (95% CI [5.41, 5.94]). Saudis presented with a significantly younger median age at diagnosis (5-10 years earlier, Conclusion: The profound divergence in incidence trends provides compelling evidence consistent with distinct, population-specific etiological drivers. This suggests a need to investigate genetic and environmental factors unique to the Saudi population. However, the heterogeneity of the non-Saudi comparator group necessitates cautious interpretation of the observed incidence rates.
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