Evidence map›Paper›PMID 42238056›Full record

ArticleLancet regional health. Americas2026

Dengue transmission risk in California under climate and land-use change: a semi-mechanistic modelling study.

Lisa I Couper, Terrell J Sipin, Samantha Sambado, Zoe Rennie, Kyle M Shanebeck, Kelsey P Lyberger, Philip P A Collender, Van Ngo, Justin V Remais, Andrew J MacDonald

Abstract read
PubMed Full text at PMC Publisher
In one paragraph

Article in Lancet regional health. Americas, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.

0numbers the graph read from it
0cells of the map it votes in
1citing papers in PubMed
–field-weighted citation impact
1 · What the graph read from it

What it found

Each row is one number read from the abstract, on the scale the paper reported it, with its interval. Left of the dashed line favours the treatment, right favours the comparator. Under each row is the sentence it came from. New to these charts? A ten-minute tutorial.

The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.

2 · The registry

The trial behind it

Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.

Neither the registry nor the abstract names a trial number. If this is a trial report, that itself is worth knowing.

3 · Its place in the literature

Who cites it

1 citing paper in PubMed.

  1. Review
4 · The record

Corrections and comments

PubMed lists nothing against this paper. Absence here is not a guarantee, only a check that was made.

5 · Who and what money

Authors and funding

10 authors.

Lisa I CouperDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, 2121 Berkeley Way West, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA.
Terrell J SipinBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
Samantha SambadoDepartment of Ecology, Evolution, and Marine Biology, University of California, Santa Barbara, Life Sciences Building, UCEN Rd Building 535, Goleta, CA 93117, USA.
Zoe RennieBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
Kyle M ShanebeckBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.
Kelsey P LybergerDepartment of Biology, Stanford University, 327 Campus Drive, Stanford, CA 94305, USA.
Philip P A CollenderCounty of Santa Clara Public Health Department, 150 W. Tasman Drive, San Jose, CA 95134, USA.
Van NgoLos Angeles County Department of Public Health, 5050 Commerce Drive, Baldwin Park, CA 91706, USA.
Justin V RemaisDivision of Environmental Health Sciences, University of California, Berkeley, 2121 Berkeley Way West, Berkeley, CA 94704, USA.
Andrew J MacDonaldBren School of Environmental Science & Management, University of California, Santa Barbara, 2400 Bren Hall, Santa Barbara, CA 93106, USA.

Funding

No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.

6 · The paper itself

Abstract

Background: Dengue cases are increasing in non-endemic regions due to environmental change and increasing travel and trade. For these non-endemic regions, estimating dengue risk is challenging as transmission is driven by both local environmental conditions and the introduction of viremic travelers. In this study, we aimed to estimate current and future dengue risk in California, USA-a region that has recently experienced its first cases of locally-acquired dengue. Methods: We modeled dengue risk as the product of three key components needed for local transmission-vector presence, temperature-suitability for pathogen transmission, and viral introductions via travel-associated cases-estimated using vector and case surveillance, sociodemographic, and environmental data. We estimated risk for locations and months where local transmission was reported in 2023-2024 to define a 'threshold' level of risk. We then projected monthly, census tract-level risk under both current conditions and future scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion. Findings: Approximately 18.2 million (95% CI: 17.9-18.3) California residents-primarily in the Central Valley and the Los Angeles and San Diego metropolitan areas-currently live in areas where peak monthly dengue risk exceeds levels estimated during observed local transmission. Under moderate scenarios of climate warming and urban expansion, an additional 4.1 million (95% CI: 3.7-4.6) residents may be at risk by mid-century. Outside the summer months and beyond the Central Valley and southern California, current and future risk remains low due to one or more major bottlenecks to transmission. Interpretation: Our study identifies the specific regions and months conducive to dengue transmission in the non-endemic setting of California. At present, this covers a substantial portion of the state and is projected to expand under ongoing climate warming and urbanization. Our results underscore the need for sustained vector control, and timely detection of travel-associated cases. Funding: National Science Foundation, National Institute of Food and Agriculture.

Indexed as

Aedes aegyptiCaliforniadengueEnvironmental changeGlobalizationLand use changeMosquito

Identifiers

PMID42238056
PMCPMC13226950

What OpenQuestion holds

Textmetadata
LicenceCC BY-NC
Read underepoch 390

Registered trials

None linked

Read under generation 80e0d062 · epoch 390. Bibliography from PubMed, PubMed Central and OpenAlex; grants from NIH RePORTER; trial links from ClinicalTrials.gov; estimates, votes and beliefs from the OpenQuestion graph.