ArticlePest management science2026
Comparative modelling of two migratory locusts along the China-Kazakhstan border under climate change: Poleward habitat shifts and increasing transboundary risk.
Article in Pest management science, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
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1 citing paper in PubMed.
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14 authors.
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Abstract
backgroundMigratory locusts threaten grassland productivity and transboundary biosecurity in arid Central Asia, but climate-driven changes in suitable habitats remain unclear. This study quantified the historical and future habitat suitability of Calliptamus italicus and Locusta migratoria migratoria in the China-Kazakhstan border region, identified key environmental factors linked to critical developmental periods, and analysed habitat shifts and centroid migration under future climate scenarios.
resultsModel performance was high for both species (mean area under the curve/true skill statistic (AUC/TSS): 0.964/0.854 for C. italicus and 0.967/0.823 for L. migratoria migratoria). For C. italicus, eclosion-period wind speed and overwintering relative humidity were the main historical drivers, whereas future suitability was driven mainly by overwintering relative humidity and slope. Low-suitability habitat declined from 206 900 to 139 400 km
conclusionClimate change is likely to intensify habitat redistribution and transboundary invasion risk for both locusts. Integrating developmental-period environmental controls with dynamic habitat-shift analysis improves risk assessment and supports earlier warning, cross-border monitoring, and coordinated locust management. © 2026 Society of Chemical Industry.
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