ArticleScience advances2026
Projected public health benefits of a hypothetical HSV-1 vaccine in the United States: A mathematical modeling analysis.
Article in Science advances, 2026. The graph could read no effect estimate from its abstract, so it casts no vote on the map. Cited by 1 paper.
What it found
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The abstract states no effect estimate the extractor could read, or names no intervention and outcome on the map, so this paper lights no cell and moves no belief. It is still indexed, cited and linked below.
The trial behind it
Trials whose registry record cites this paper, or whose number appears in the abstract. A trial that started after this paper was published is citing it as background, not reporting it.
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Who cites it
1 citing paper in PubMed.
- Mathematical modeling of the population-level impact of hypothetical herpes simplex virus type 2 curative therapy.Communications medicine · 2026Article
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Authors and funding
4 authors.
Funding
No grant is acknowledged in the PubMed record.
Abstract
Herpes simplex virus type 1 (HSV-1) infection is highly prevalent worldwide and causes oral, genital, and neonatal herpes. Several HSV vaccine candidates are currently in development. This study used mathematical modeling to estimate the potential population-level impact of HSV-1 vaccination strategies in the United States. Infant vaccination with 70% efficacy and lifelong protection introduced in 2030 reduced oral and genital incidence rate by 47.3 and 58.3% by 2075, respectively, with annual new infections declining by 41.2 and 53.5%, corresponding to 28.5 million cumulative infections averted. The number needed to vaccinate to prevent one infection, defined from program initiation to a specified year, declined from 35.8 by 2040 to 7.2 by 2070. Addition of adolescent catch-up vaccination further reduced oral and particularly genital incidence. Lifelong protection produced approximately threefold greater impact than 15-year protection. HSV-1 vaccination could substantially reduce oral and genital HSV-1 burden, supporting prioritization of vaccine development and integration into public health strategies.
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